Novavax Inc (NASDAQ:NVAX) Is Finally Starting To Pay Off

Back in May this year we urged our readers to look beyond the share price with Novavax Inc (NASDAQ:NVAX) and weigh the company up through a combination of then-recent operational advance and some near term catalysts as opposed to doing so based on wider market sentiment.We argued that it could be a nice contrarian play and that the action we had seen throughout 2017 to date was far from representative of the long term potential of this stock. On Tuesday, Novavax ran 35%. If we've got it right, there's a lot more of this sort of action left to come near term.Here's why.For those that need catching up quickly, this is the company that’s trying to develop a vaccine for what's called respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and has gathered together some pretty strong data along its path to do just that, but which, last year, announced the failure of a late stage study in the program and basically collapsed as a result.The data hit press in September 2016 and saw the company fall from more than $7 a share to $1.20 practically overnight and, in line with market capitalization, market sentiment towards the stock crashed to strongly negative.Subsequent to the release, however, certain mitigating factors suggested that the data might not be particularly representative of the vaccine's real world potential and the company set about conducting an investigative analysis of the results to try and reinforce these suggestions with something actionable. It did just that and – based on its findings from said analysis – kicked off a couple of fresh studies designed to get the program back on track.Which brings us to the latest news.Management just announced that it is going to put out data from these studies next week and discuss said data as part of a conference call and accompanying webcast, slated to take place July 24, 2017, at 4:30 PM (that's next Monday).If the data comes out as positive it's going to reinforce the company's opinion that the previously collected data (the batch that came about on the back of the failed phase III) is flawed and that, in turn, the drug shows considerable promise after all. Remember, this one traded for more than $7 a share before sentiment took a turn for the worse. If the company can turn back the clock on said sentiment (and there's every chance it can with the upcoming data release and webcast) then we could be looking at a quick return to pre-September 2016 pricing.So what's on the cards?Here's the agenda, taken from the company's press release announcing the webcast:

1. Announce topline data from the Phase 2 safety and immunogenicity trial in Older Adults
2. Provide additional findings from prior Phase 2 and Phase 3 clinical trials in Older Adults
3. Update on the Prepare trial for Infants via Maternal Immunization

Number 1 is the big deal here, as it's the data that's going to help reinforce suggestions that the failed phase III data is flawed (because the trial was flawed as well). If the data is positive, chances are that item number 2 will reveal how, and why, the difference between the initial phase III and the recently completed phase II came about.Item number 3 isn't going to serve up a huge amount of near term action (as the trial it's addressing isn’t set to complete until the end of the decade) but there's a good chance we'll get some word from an independent monitoring committee as to safety progress and – in a pregnant female population – that's a big deal.There is, of course, every chance that the data won't be as good as markets hope it will be and – if this is the case – this company is going to tank. With that said, however, why would management prepare a webcast and hold a conference call just to announced failed numbers?Check out our previous coverage of this one here!We will be updating our subscribers as soon as we know more. For the latest updates on NVAX, sign up below!Image courtesy of Vaddi77 via FlickrDisclosure: We have no position in NVAX and have not been compensated for this article.